Cup of Coffee: March 6, 2024

Good morning!

Today the Red Sox got some bad news, some other banged up stars are not as badly banged up as was feared, and the Athletics have released stadium renderings for a stadium that is never, ever gonna be built.

In Other Stuff: Jupiter’s moons, Dublin — no, not that one, another one — and vast, vast piles of dirty laundry.

 The Daily Briefing

Some more A’s Las Vegas stadium vaporware

Yesterday some new alleged renderings of the Athletics’ planned stadium in Las Vegas were leaked. They came from the architecture firm, Bjarke Ingels Group, which says it won the competition to design the ballpark. That news was not supposed to come out until today, but the Nevada Independent and several other outlets ran with it. They did not defy a media embargo, however. Rather, the architecture firm and/or their publicist sent out the renderings and then, only later, said “oh by the way, this needs to be embargoed.” Which shows you how professional this whole operation is being run.

The renderings themselves are likewise extraordinarily shoddy and unprofessional. Indeed, the whole thing is quite obviously AI-designed vaporware, thrown together in like 17 minutes. As if someone went to an image generator and said “hey, mash together the Sydney Opera House and the Las Vegas Sphere and throw in some design elements of (a) that car Homer Simpson designed for his brother’s factory that time” and (b) a Dyson AirBlade. Judge for yourself:

It’s superficially pretty until you look at it for more then seven seconds. Then you realize:

• That there are no lights;
• There are no bullpens;
• There’s also no batter’s eye (hitters will LOVE looking at the flashing lights of the Vegas strip while trying to hit a 98 mph fastball!);
• There is no apparent HVAC system;
• There are no luxury suites;
• There are no on-deck circles.

Also, the right field foul pole is jutting out of the stands, which was the first thing that made me think that this was AI-created. It’s like how image generators mess up people’s hands. And yeah, if you zoom in to these renderings you can see they did that too:

All of which is to say that these are promotional renderings, aimed at trying to regain the momentum John Fisher and the A’s have lost as they’ve flailed around for months now, making little to no progress on the Las Vegas project other than to keep fielding lawsuits over it. They’re not proper architectural renderings. Which, by the way, they were supposed to have submitted a couple of months ago. I don’t think this release counts as even a late submission because, again, these are shoddily assembled hype photos, more appropriate for a press conference from like a year ago, when the plan to move the team was taking shape.

I still put it at only 65-35 that the A’s actually build a place and move to Las Vegas. I’ll only up those odds if and when they do a single thing that actually shows they are committing to the move instead of doing things that merely make it look like they’re moving. Seriously, John Fisher: whenever you want to drop this cynical bullshit and get serious, that’d be great.

Lucas Giolito has a torn UCL 

Jeff Passan reported yesterday that Lucas Giolito, the Boston Red Sox’ big offseason acquisition, has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain and is at serious risk of requiring Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2024 season. This came soon after Sox manager Alex Cora said that Giolito felt elbow discomfort after his last outing and that the team is “concerned.”

One presumes that the Sox will send Giolito to one of the notable UCL doctors for a second opinion, but it’s rare for things to turn out all good and rosy after you get reports like this. My guess is that he’s done for the year.

Giolito’s top attribute as a free agent was his durability. He’s been up and he’s been down over the past couple of years but he got that two-year, $38.5 million contract because he takes the ball every fifth day. Now it seems highly likely that he won’t be taking the ball for a year or more which, while primarily putting him in a bad place, is a serious blow for the Red Sox rotation as well.

Scott Boras has two starting pitcher clients on the market right now in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. I feel like the Sox, if they were actually serious about trying to compete this season, would jump to sign one of them pretty damn soon. But as soon as the Giolito news broke a bunch of Red Sox reporters who know the front office’s thinking poured cold water on that, strongly suggesting that the club won’t make that kind of move.

All of which makes it pretty clear that Boston had no intention of trying to compete anyway, right? Like, that's an admission that Giolito’s signing was just eyewash as opposed to a belief on the Red Sox’ part that they had a chance? Which I don’t suppose is a shock to Boston fans who have followed this club closely in recent years, but it’s still worth saying out loud.

Sonny Gray has a mild hamstring strain

Yesterday we talked about Cardinals starter Sonny Gray leaving a start with a sore hamstring. Now we have an update. Per Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak, Gray has been diagnosed with a “mild” hamstring strain. Mozeliak called it “encouraging news,” but said that Gray being ready for Opening Day would be “challenging.”

The season is a marathon, not a sprint. Put him on the IL, err on the side of caution, and hope he can pitch well for you from late April-on.

Atlanta says Acuña will be ready for Opening Day

The Atlanta Baseball Club announced yesterday morning that Ronald Acuña Jr. was seen by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles late Monday night and that the good doctor confirmed that Acuña’s knee owee was merely an irritation in the meniscus and not anything super serious. They said that Acuña is set to gradually increase baseball activities and is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Good news for Atlanta and Acuña. Bad news for everyone who has to play them. At least assuming this diagnosis is legit and he’s at 100%.

Justin Verlander to begin the season on the injured list

In contrast, Houston ace Justin Verlander will not be good to go for Opening Day.

We knew Verlander reported to camp with a sore shoulder. Manager Joe Espada said that Verlander hasn’t had any setbacks with the shoulder, but that he needs more time to build up strength and resume pitching, thus pushing his whole calendar back.

Verlander is something of a physical freak, but he’s also 40. Forty wins. Forty always wins.

Steve Garvey moves on to the general election

Former big leaguer Steve Garvey finished second in yesterday’s California U.S. Senate primary behind Congressman Adam Schiff, which means that he will move on to face Schiff in the general election in November. Garvey beat out Congresswomen Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, whose Senate bids are now over.

Garvey owes a debt of gratitude to Schiff for getting this far, actually.

As I’ve mentioned before, California puts all candidates, regardless of party, on the same primary ballot and the two who get the most votes advance to the general election. It would’ve been possible, then, for Schiff and another Democrat, such as Porter, to be the two general election candidates. Given California’s strong Democratic bent, it’s almost certain that Schiff would have an easier team beating Garvey head-to-head while he’d have a much tougher time against Porter. As such, Schiff spent a lot of time highlighting Garvey’s conservative credentials via negative campaigning which helped boost Republican turnout, as he knew it would, putting Garvey past Porter. Now Schiff gets the far easier head-to-head opponent.

Was that cynical on Schiff’s part? Absolutely. But it probably was the smart play.

Other Stuff

Jupiter’s Moons

The Jovian moon Europa is thought to have a large, salty ocean underneath its frozen exterior. It is further thought that this large, salty ocean could harbor life or that it possesses the sorts of traits which could one day lead to the development of life. The key here is oxygen, which astronomers were unsure existed on Europa, though they suspected it did given that there’s water there and oxygen is a key component of water.

A story in yesterday’s New York Times presented some good news/bad news on that front. The good news: yes, oxygen is produced on Europa. It’s obviously not photosynthesis-created oxygen, but there’s a process. The bad news: not nearly as much oxygen is produced as some suspected, and it may not be nearly enough for Europa to be habitable, either today or in the future.

Which I suppose means that ALL THESE WORLDS ARE YOURS, EXCEPT EUROPA. And that we should ATTEMPT NO LANDING THERE. I suppose the best we can do is to USE THEM TOGETHER and to USE THEM IN PEACE.

Ohio suburb attempting to create an international incident 

There’s a major suburb of Columbus, Ohio called Dublin. Like the suburb I used to live in it’s full of white people who like golf, 7,000-square foot houses, and doing everything they can to keep their kids out of Columbus City Schools. The difference is that while my old place, New Albany, leans into Anglophilia, with streets and subdivisions and the general aesthetic giving off a vaguely “Disney World version of England” vibe, Dublin leans in to Hibernophilia, with shamrocks and Celtic fonts all over the damn place.

The folks of Dublin, Ohio are being a bit cheeky with all of that right now. From the Columbus Dispatch:

The visitor's bureau in Dublin, Ohio, is attempting to lure tourists from the original Dublin around St. Patrick's Day with "shameless offers of free beer." Visit Dublin Ohio, a nonprofit funded in part by the city's bed tax, has placed billboards and other advertisements in downtown Dublin, Ireland, promising to pay for free pints.

Irish travelers (over 21) just have to pay for plane tickets, hotels and everything else. Dublin, Ireland residents who bring a valid ID to the visitor's center in Dublin, Ohio, between March 8 and March 18 will receive a $200 Visa gift card intended to pay for their bar tab.

They have a website for it and everything. And yes, they have put up a billboard in the original Dublin:

It’s been a while since I’ve spent much time up in Dublin, Ohio — if you live downtown or on the east side of town like I did for the past couple of decades you rarely if ever go way the hell out to Dublin — but I’m guessing that the beer culture there is not quite as good as it is in Ireland. I mean, there’s probably an Irish-themed bar or three up there where you can get a mediocrely-pulled Guinness, but to people from Ireland it probably hits like an “American diner” in Yorkshire hits for us: vaguely recognizable, yes, but sorta offensive on several levels. And yeah, I’ve been to one of those. That was quite an experience.

But never fear, my Irish friends. If you do come to Dublin, Ohio for that free beer, and if you want to get the most of Central Ohio culture when you do so, I have the place for you:

Yes, it’s real. And no, it’s not spectacular. But unlike all of the shamrocks and Celtic writing, it’s authentic to our region. Enjoy your visit!

Dirty Laundry

The other night, one of the media’s biggest bullshitters going, Bari Weiss, tweeted this:

Except, as many people immediately responded, some with extensive evidence and data, this is completely false. To the contrary, Austin’s crime rate — in all categories, including both violent and property crime — has decreased significantly since the current prosecutor took office. Which means that Weiss’ tweet was just a bald-faced lie.

As of yesterday morning, when the polls opened in Austin, Weiss had not removed nor amended her tweet. Her lie is just hanging out there like this. Probably because she knows that others will add to the bullshit, as several did in the replies, claiming that, actually, crime is way, way worse but people have become so hopeless and resigned that they don’t report crimes anymore. Or that even if the crime rate is down, people still “feel unsafe.” Or other completely unverifiable and unfalsifiable assertions aimed at salvaging the bullshit point.

One sees this dynamic elsewhere. Particularly on social media platforms which cater to older or more suburban people like Facebook or NextDoor. I cannot tell you how many people who have not set foot in downtown Columbus in years routinely talk erroneous crap about how dangerous it is. Like, someone will post that they had a great meal at a restaurant in the city and some dude who lives 40 miles out of town will say “I’d love to go, but crime is so bad in the city now I’m not gonna risk it!” Or someone will post a photo of taken at the corner of High and Broad streets in 1955 for some “Columbus History” page and there will, guaranteed, be a comment from some suburban or rural person saying “that was back when you could walk the streets without getting mugged or worse!” I used to reply to them, “have you been mugged or worse while downtown Columbus?” You’ll be shocked to hear that that only elicits defensive and deflecting hostility.

This is not really a new dynamic, of course. People — at least certain people — have always believed that things are worse than they actually are, be it crime rates (they’re down), the economy (it’s actually strong), the effects of immigration (they’re actually good), or any number of other things. Indeed, people routinely ignore actual evidence and data when it comes to this stuff and choose, instead, to believe erroneous things. There are two reasons for this beyond just base pessimism and they go hand-in-hand: (1) the over-reporting of bad news by the media and the amplification of that news by pundits; and (2) politically motivated lies spread by Republican politicians.

The example of crime reporting and fear-mongering is well established. “If it bleeds it leads” is a very old media truism, and studies of both local and national news have shown that, with the exception of weather and traffic, the media dedicate more time to crime than any other topic. Broadcasters know that the visceral holds viewers’ attention more than the intellectual. They know — based on polling, even! — that more people are going to watch stories of a murder or a carjacking or a smash-and-grab robbery than are going to watch stories about a new ordinance from city hall or the specific positions of two people running for state our county office. This despite the fact that the former only affects a small handful of people and the latter will affect hundreds of thousands or even millions.

These coverage decisions, based purely on chasing ratings and ad revenue, directly impact public perception, with excessive coverage of crime creating a misperception among the public that crime is a bigger problem than it really is. This is true even in periods, like the present, when reported crime actually is down. And don’t even get me started about how what sort of crime in particular gets reported more and what that means for public perception. But if you guessed “crime committed by Black and brown people” gets reported more and that it helps stoke racist attitudes among the predominately white viewers of local news, welp, dingdingdingdingding.

All of this is of great benefit to Republican politicians who have a vested interest in pushing narratives about crime and immigration being a huge problem and portraying American cities as something akin to post-apocalyptic hellscapes. They do this because they want to rile up their primarily rural and suburban white base and to discount the voices and experiences of people who actually live in cities.

This, in turn, animates a larger dynamic which I’ve been thinking a lot about lately: how much easier it is to run as a Republican than a Democrat these days.

Republicans have largely abandoned actually positive or constructive policy positions and have instead geared their entire political message to stoke fear and resentment in the electorate. Like local news, which has figured out that fear, anxiety, and no small amount of tribalism is great for ratings, Republicans have learned that a scared, worried, resentful, and tribal electorate is good for Republican candidates. So they talk up how horrible crime is, even if it isn’t true, how dangerous immigrants are and how destructive immigration is, even if it isn’t true, and how bad the economy is, even if it isn’t true. The media is either invested in the same message or has been so thoroughly defanged by corporate ownership that the lies can be offered without much fear of pushback. Democrats, meanwhile, have to fight against that and articulate policy positions which are nowhere near as sexy like bike lanes or labor policies or whatever. It’s no contest who has the messaging advantage in such a situation. It’s always easier to destroy than it is to build.

The only silver lining here is that, more often than not, the disingenuous and odious positions or Republicans are given voice by Republican candidates who are themselves odious people who actively turn off wide swaths of voters, helping to mitigate the larger dynamic to some degree. God help us if Republicans remember how well they did when their standard bearer was an amiable former Hollywood actor who soft-pedaled his hateful and destructive policies in an effort to make people forget what it was they were really supporting.

Have a great day everyone.

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